Low pressure area in Caribbean Sea - Karen

I don't like the looks of it much....this area has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next two days, and a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next five days.

It was looking weaker yesterday. I have been watching it f'sure.

In their blurb today, the NHC said it is organizing. Ugh. Those September/October hurricanes are the worst.

I'll never forget Opal.

We went to sleep thinking it was a Cat 1 headed for Gulfport, if I recall. By morning it was a Cat 3 and bearing straight down on Pensacola.

I took my dog to my work place that day in a pet carrier (as did several others.) The only other option was to leave her at home, which I couldn't do.

Updated Thursday 10 AM

The models are alarmingly in agreement.  Damn!

They're saying it might be approaching the Northern Gulf Coast on Saturday.  Development for the short term is going to be slow.

A great hurricane resource.  http://spaghettimodels.com

Edit: looks like I'm going to see how well my new storm shutters fit.

It looks like it has good outflow, but little circulation.

Urgh!

We're all watching it.

Now tropical storm Karen. Winds at 65 mph at this time!

Just like Opal. Just like her. Dammit all!

Don't say that, Melissa. Please don't say that.

At least Karen is giving us a warning. Opal gave no warning at all.

These October storms that brew in the Caribbean seem to come up so fast in comparison to the storms that come in from the Atlantic.

I am being totally self-centered here. I have been working for two months in my back yard. I have fixed up the greenhouse, complete with new seedlings directly from seed and assortment of tropicals that I've divided and re-potted. I've set up a container herb garden where the shed used to be. All my herbs will
need to go into the greenhouse, and we'll hope for the best, I suppose.

We have a huge, old, dying oak tree that sits right on the property line between our house and our neighbor's house. About eight months ago, our neighbor approached us about dividing the cost and taking it down. We couldn't afford it then. When we were able to afford it two months ago, we were unable to get in touch with our neighbor, who stays out of town most of the time. We tried for weeks to get in touch with him. We will have to hope for the best now, too.

We learned that we are not legally able to take down that oak tree unless we have our neighbor's written permission since the tree sits smack on the property line. We learned this from the tree companies from whom we received quotes. None would remove it without our neighbor's permission.

The way this storm is a-comin', that tree is a hazard to structures North and West of it. (Wind out of the Southeast)

What compass direction is it from your house?

There is always that last minute check list where we realize the shoulda's coulda's.

ALWAYS.

The tree is east of our house. If it goes down in a NE direction, it will wipe out our front yard, but hopefully not the house. Thanks for the info.

Oh my, Eric.  According to your stats this will be bunking with me this weekend.  Tree loving, out of town neighbor.

Shall I kiss it night night?

I have a few chain saws that can take care of that little tree in a few minutes, but it really doesn't look very dense so the wind should blow right thru it without knocking it down except for a few dead limbs if there are any..

Oh, I hope you're right, Jake!

I asked them last year about taking it down and the answer was less than satisfactory.

Fingers, legs and toes crossed.

That tree can't get to your house. It looks pretty sturdy when you compare the size of the trunk to the foliage.

I'm a tree lover, as was my dad who planted this oak in the 1970's.

We are all sad about taking out that old oak tree. None of us wanted to do it. However, you can stick your hand INTO the base of it on the northeast side of the tree. It's rotten. Also, there is very little growth on it, and the large limbs are all gone.

I'm a tree lover, for sure. Our little lot is covered with greenery and small trees of different stripes. This oak is the tallest of all, and home to squirrels, I'm sure.