http://fortune.com/2015/02/26/japan-economic-time-bomb/?xid=gn_editorspicks&google_editors_picks=true
Nevertheless,the situation in Japan,the world’s third largest economy,will have a greater impact on the global economy in the years to come than Greece ever will. And for aging Western Democracies like the U.S.,watchingwhat unfolds in Japan may be like looking into a crystalball of our own economic future.
Takatoshi Ito,an economist at Columbia’s School of International& Public Affairs,argued at a panel discussion on Monday that unless the Japanese government can raise its sales tax to north of 15 % ,from its current 8 % ,Japan’s economy will suffer a fiscal crisis sometime between 20 21and 20 23 .That’s because as Japan’s population continues to age,its famously high savings rate will have to fall,and the Japanese public will no longer be able to absorbthe large amount of debt the government is assuming.
Unlike Greece, the Japanese government can print as many yen as it wants to pay its debts—debts that are largely owned by the government,Japanese banks,and citizens.So there’s no reason Japan would have to default on its debt. But all that money printing,argued Ito, will lead to an inflation crisis and aserious decline in the Japanese standard of living.
Ito’s co-panelist, Japan scholarGerald Curtis,doesn’t believe that the Japanese government will raise the sales tax to 15 % any time soon. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to delay asales tax increase from 8% to 10 % until2 01 7is indicative of the government’s inability to force such painful policies on the public. “It’s very hard for me to see how we get from here to there,” said Curtis. If BothIto and Curtis are right, that means we’re just afew short years away from a fiscal crisis in Japan.