Terrorists could hit 9 key substations and kill the nation's power

http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/14/5509388/small-attacks-on-nine-substations-could-cause-a-national-blackout

Quote :

...attacks, if perpetrated simultaneously on a scorching summer day when Americans are blasting their air conditioners, could be devastating. If the attackers also took out an American manufacturer of power transformers, the power outage could last some 18 months, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

After a substation attack in San Jose, FERC did some analysis and figured that 9 key susbstations, if hit simultaneously, could trigger our grid to collapse.

I am surprised that they didn't publish the locations of the substations as well.  If we're gonna help the terrorists, why not just make it easier for them?

I don't get that "warm and fuzzy" feeling about this...

I felt sick to my stomach when I read about this a few months back, E. Anyone with a little basic knowledge of the grid and elementary geography in the lower 48 could figure out which substations those might be. I'm not sure if the article you read mentioned this or not, but since the SJ substation was attacked they have been working on ways to better secure them. One would only hope that it is a priority project.

I believe 18-mos is an optimistic estimate of outage. Transformers are long leadtime goods because they require a lot of specialty parts (procured from overseas, and which are specialty in and of themselves) to build. Suppliers of those parts are often unable to deliver to the manufacturer on time...

It is a fine time to live off the grid.

I just bought a 20-watt solar panel to take with me camping. Maybe I should invest a little more heavily into solar...

The COE of solar is still really high because of the high cost of materials, but most states offer tax incentives for renewable systems. I don't imagine it's very windy around B'ham... the COE of wind is dramatically lower than solar.

Just out of curiosity... what are you going to run on 20W?

riceme wrote:

Just out of curiosity... what are you going to run on 20W?

20 watts at 18-24 volts.  I plan to recharge battery-powered speakers, cell phones, my iPad and stuff like that.

Have two speakers on order.  I know they won't put out too much sound, but it beats hauling out a huge boombox that I have (50 watts total), car batteries, inverters, and the like.  I'm sure as hell ain'ta gonna drag my 2000 watt generator out there. These speakers will deliver sound for over 20 hours and recharge in 2 hours.

Well if that other article made you uncomfortable, this one ought to make you downright scared.

http://freebeacon.com/report-u-s-electric-grid-inherently-vulnerable-to-sabotage/

Elaborating on some of the supply chain issues: transportation would be a critical issue. Typically, when there is a supply chain constraint of a key component, it is flown to the manufacturer from the supplier to expedite delivery. How do you fly and land a modern cargo plane on a runway with no comms, no nothing? A fastboat takes roughly 2-wks from Europe to Eastern seaboard, depending on port of departure and port of entry, then add ground transport time. Japan & China = 6+ wks, and you better bet your ass these mfr's are sourcing out of China and Korea (transit time from Korea is about 9-wks... total PITA country to do business with).

Back it up a bit and how does the manufacturer even communicate his needs to the supplier if all comms are down? No email, no phones, and no texting. After we send a carrier pidgeon to the supplier telling them what we need, how do we actually manufacture the transformers when we have no power for overhead & jib cranes, power tools, testing equipment? It would take one helluva backup generator to power a manufacturing facility. That leaves overseas sources for the xfmrs, and there again we are screwed by the door to door transit times.

There are an infinite number of things that go FUBAR with widespread, long term power outage. Not a good scenario.

I went with GoalZero's Nomad 20 solar cells.  That item is a trifold cell configuration that will fold up nicely and fit into a backpack.  They make a rugged 30-watt unit that I wanted, at the same price as the 20-watt, but it is bulky and not too portable.  I saw a 30-watt pack at a cheaper price that folded like a small suitcase and it was made by GoalZero, but it wasn't listed on their website.  It may have been a discontinued item.

http://www.goalzero.com/solar-panels

The Nomad-20 has
USB Port (output): 5V, up to 2.1A (10W max), regulated
Solar Port (blue, 8mm): 14-22V, up to 1.3A (20W max)
Mini Solar Port (2.5mm): 6.5V, up to 1.1A (7W max), regulated

and comes with an adaptor that has a female cigarette receptacle.  They also sell an adaptor to charge 12-volt batteries via alligator clips.

riceme wrote:

There are an infinite number of things that go FUBAR with widespread, long term power outage. Not a good scenario.

And my super quiet fuel-sipping Honda 2000 watt generator will be worthless when I run out of gasoline.

We could starve to death because we don't store 100-lb sacks of beans, rice, and such, and getting clean water to cook with will be a pain, too.

Solar or wind ain't looking too bad...

Those sound like pretty cool little units, Eric. My cousin's wife got something similar but I have not seen it yet, as obviously it is only useful in the summer up here. Right now it is in "the hole," which is what we call their basement.

We have talked about taking the woodstove out of this cabin and putting in one of those pellet stoves. The air quality board and the state environmental agency pay for you to do so because the air quality is so bad up here because everyone uses wood heat. It might sound paranoid, but our hesitation in doing so is the possibility that everything goes to hell in a handbasket and not being able to get pellets for fuel. Wood fuel is plentiful. Know what I mean, Vern? This substation deal doesn't make me feel so paranoid. What's that old saying about being paranoid??

Eric wrote:

riceme wrote:

There are an infinite number of things that go FUBAR with widespread, long term power outage. Not a good scenario.

And my super quiet fuel-sipping Honda 2000 watt generator will be worthless when I run out of gasoline.

We could starve to death because we don't store 100-lb sacks of beans, rice, and such, and getting clean water to cook with will be a pain, too.

Solar or wind ain't looking too bad...

Egg-zachary. You're picking up on what I'm putting down... If the issues are that big to build a few transformers, what about everything else? We've designed and built a society that is dependent upon electricity, and now we are slaves to it.

If I was still in the south I'd be asking Teo if I could rent some space out at Camp FEMA!!

I don't think he has finished his hole-in-the-ground.

But, I'll bet he has some food stashed there.

We have friends in North Carolina that live off the grid as much as possible. They have two levels of emergency rations. When they lay in fresh rations, they begin to eat the older rations. They garden and can a bunch of stuff and have a wide variety of seed stocks that they keep fresh as well. Their solar panels, batteries and inverters supply most... maybe all of their electrical needs. I know their refrigerator and lights run off batteries. They heat with a wood stove.

I'm pretty sure T is better squared-away than most of us, lol.

Your friends have the right idea. That is how my cousin's wife manages the food she puts up each season, plus she gets 50# sacks of staples, like whole rolled oats, rice, and things like that. We have two dozen hens (had to kill the rooster) that easily provide all the eggs we can eat, and all of our meat is harvested fish & game. If everything went to shit, power would be a problem for us because there is literally no wind here, so wind power is out, and the sun doesn't shine 6-months out of the year, eliminating solar as a viable year-round energy source. We would either have to jerk all our meat in a hurry or we would lose over 750 lbs of moose, dall sheep, salmon and halibut. If it wasn't for my cousin I would probably freeze to death in this scenario. :/ Or starve to death since they share their harvest with me.

What kind of batteries do your friends have? I only know of one place off the grid that has battery banks. It is a Buddhist Monestary my dad helped build and the battery banks are in the side of the mountain.

The batteries look like 12-volt car batteries, but they are deep-cycle marine batteries and I think they chain 'em together to get 48 volts. I forget how many they have, but it is probably about a dozen.

Huh... cool.